Markets are rallying—but energy markets remain under serious strain as conflict in the Middle East continues to disrupt global oil supply.

Chuck and Paul break down:

• The real impact of a partially closed Strait of Hormuz
• Why oil prices are swinging—and what it means for inflation
• Wall Street’s rising “recession odds” (and why those predictions may not be worth much)
• Early price pressure showing up in key industries

Plus, in Ask Todd, Todd Lutsky explains the critical differences between life estates and irrevocable Medicaid trusts, the tax consequences of gifting property, and how to avoid costly estate planning mistakes.

A packed hour covering markets, macro risks, and smart planning decisions.

On this week’s Ask Todd, Todd Lutsky breaks down the real differences between life estates and irrevocable trusts — and why the “quick fix” solution isn’t always the best one.

Todd explains:

• How much control you actually give up with a life estate
• Why irrevocable Medicaid trusts are often used to protect assets from long-term care costs
• The five-year lookback rule and what it means for nursing home planning
• Capital gains consequences when selling property held in a life estate
• What happens when a parent leaves property to just one child — and how gift tax rules apply if proceeds are shared

If you own property, are worried about long-term care costs, or already have a life estate in place, this episode walks through the pros, cons, and tax implications you need to understand.

Markets swing again as oil pushes toward $91 and the 10-year yield climbs, yet stocks remain just 5% below their pre-war highs. Mike Armstrong and Paul Lane ask whether investors are underestimating the geopolitical and energy risks in front of them.

They break down:

• Why volatility hasn’t translated into deeper equity losses
• The deteriorating outlook for young and college-educated workers
• CFO warnings that AI is coming for administrative jobs
• Why timing “the worst 10 days” in markets is a fantasy
• How retirees should think about risk, guardrails, and portfolio discipline
• A heated debate over home insurance, government backstops, and market distortions

A wide-ranging hour on market psychology, labor market stress, AI disruption, and what real risk management actually looks like.

Mike Armstrong and Paul Lane break down another volatile morning in markets as conflicting headlines out of Iran whipsaw stocks and oil. With the Strait of Hormuz still disrupted, they explain why actions—not statements—are what really matter for investors.

They dive into the real economic risk: a potential “dual shock” of slowing growth and rising prices. Is stagflation back on the table? And are U.S. recessions really becoming less frequent—or are investors just forgetting what downturns feel like?

Plus:

• Why oil prices above $90 could matter more for supply chains than at the pump
• The state of the U.S. labor market heading into 2026
• Massachusetts home sales and what’s really behind the slowdown
• The private credit stress building beneath the surface

A wide-ranging look at geopolitics, inflation risk, and whether markets are underestimating what comes next.

Markets rallied sharply after President Trump announced a five-day pause on planned U.S. strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure. But as conflicting messages emerge from Tehran, Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong ask the only question that really matters for the global economy: when will ships resume normal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz?

They break down the market reaction, why oil and diesel prices remain a key risk, and how rising transportation costs could filter into inflation in the months ahead.

Plus:
• Why $5 diesel may not be “crushing” truckers the way headlines suggest
• The latest concerns around private credit and where real risks may lie
• Why healthcare continues to drive job growth
• The dangers of young investors taking on speculative risk
• Seven ways to think about retiring into a volatile market

Futures were down sharply overnight—until a single Truth Social post sent markets soaring. Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong break down the stunning swing for the S&P after President Trump announced a delay in potential U.S. strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure.

What do we actually know about negotiations with Iran? Is this real de-escalation—or just fog-of-war messaging? The guys dig into the only signal that truly matters for markets: whether ships start moving again through the Strait of Hormuz.

Plus:
• How long oil markets could take to normalize—even in a best-case scenario
• Why $60 oil likely isn’t coming back anytime soon
• Whether the Fed’s next move could really be a rate hike
• What the bond market is signaling right now

Markets are under pressure as oil climbs toward $100, bond yields spike globally, and gas prices near $4 a gallon. Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong break down why this isn’t a “Sell America” trade—but a worldwide bond selloff—and what it means for stocks, mortgages, and the broader economy.

The guys debate the Fed’s toughest question: what happens if unemployment rises while inflation stays elevated? With central banks unable to “print oil,” policymakers may be forced to choose between fighting inflation and protecting the job market.

Plus: mortgage rates jump into the spring housing season, a retirement mistake that can trigger costly RMD penalties, pressure in the financial sector, and whether Americans drinking less is becoming a real economic trend.

Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong break down day 21 of the Strait of Hormuz shutdown and why the real economic damage may just be beginning. With oil trading near $160 a barrel in parts of the Middle East, the guys explain why global benchmarks could surge if the conflict drags on — and why Saudi Arabia is now floating $180 oil as a real possibility.

They discuss fuel shortages in Asia, shipping disruptions, refinery slowdowns, and what sustained energy stress could mean for markets, inflation, and recession risk.

Plus: options expiration volatility, China’s shrinking share of the global economy, and the latest market movers in tech and defense.

Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong break down another volatile day on Wall Street as oil prices surge, gas climbs toward $4 nationally, and markets wrestle with the real-world economic risks of the Iran conflict.

The guys dig into what sustained energy disruptions could mean for global supply chains, food production, and inflation — and why some strategists say investors may be underestimating the risks.

Plus, a fascinating look at how AI-generated resumes are slowing down hiring, why Gen X is quietly dominating today’s uncertain job market, and what Meta’s retreat from parts of the metaverse says about the tech race ahead.